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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2251

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 13 20:27:11 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 132027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132026=20
    IAZ000-132200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2251
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

    Areas affected...central Iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 710...

    Valid 132026Z - 132200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues.

    SUMMARY...Low topped thunderstorms will remain capable of a couple
    brief tornadoes and isolated small hail this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW710, low topped thunderstorms have gradually
    deepened in an arc along a wind shift/frontal zone through the first
    half of the afternoon. Ongoing within a weakly unstable environment
    (MLCAPE 250-400 J/kg) updrafts have been slow to organize thus far.
    However, with much of the buoyancy concentrated in the lowest 2 km,
    low-level acceleration and dynamic pressure perturbations may still
    favor some enhanced stretching potential as storms continue to
    slowly deepen. Stretching of plentiful ambient vorticity along the
    wind shift and beneath the upper low will support the risk for a
    couple of brief tornadoes this afternoon. Small hail may also
    accompany some of the more robust updrafts given the cold temps
    aloft. While confidence in severe coverage is not high, the most
    favored area for a couple of tornadoes appears to be across central
    and southeastern portions of the watch area. Here, slightly deeper
    moisture, along with some cloud breaks are supporting a local
    maximum in low-level buoyancy (75-150 J/kg ML 3km CAPE). A few more
    cellular elements and deeper updrafts have been noted suggesting
    somewhat higher potential for a few funnel clouds and or brief
    tornadoes this afternoon.

    ..Lyons.. 10/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_D6mW7-qxKaH_aI6WymFCfHNc1O7NM0hb1Rq5-2lvh1aeqEvlQaIk-V5BjtEul9k8uEAjOlWu= JYbC62zI3qW8i7nomk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

    LAT...LON 40979127 40779133 40669146 40669186 40679213 40759250
    40889280 41099298 41519347 41719375 42079446 42149457
    42319479 42629489 42909480 43129454 42819318 42339226
    41959184 41559152 41149129 40979127=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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