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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2248

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 12 20:45:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 122045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122044=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-122145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2248
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

    Areas affected...south-central NE...far northern KS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 709...

    Valid 122044Z - 122145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 709 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe will likely continue to be confined
    and increasingly pinched in spatial extent as storm activity
    progresses from west to east across south-central NE. An additional
    weather watch will probably be considered east of Tornado Watch
    #709.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar/visible-satellite imagery loops show
    storms peaking in intensity as they move to be within proximity of
    the triple point currently located over south-central NE. The
    airmass is quite cool at the surface north over central portions of
    NE and the convective mode as already become linear, thereby greatly
    limiting the risk for large hail. The dryline has surged east
    across north-central KS and the warm/unstable sector has become
    effectively pinched to be near the KS/NE border near Hastings, NE.=20
    It seems the tornado risk may have peaked already, but a threat for
    a brief tornado may continue in the short-term near the triple
    point. The lack of surface-based storm development on the dryline
    lends uncertainty regarding the coverage of potential stronger storm
    activity over the next couple of hours as storms slowly move east of
    tornado watch #709. Convective trends will be monitored for a
    possible additional weather watch over portions of eastern NE and
    northeast KS.

    ..Smith.. 10/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7t1CTMh8mXlHFvlNgkOskta_14JUAKpGbr5gmgs9LfnyHwjvJKPk8JZQjInCYIBHD07CYZ6zP= n3zy-9OiBsSAD6zGZ4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 40779909 40809902 40929872 40889790 40529728 40029714
    39729725 39499773 39519802 40019827 40269856 40459900
    40779909=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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