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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2247

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 12 18:13:05 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 121812
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121812=20
    FLZ000-121945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2247
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0112 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

    Areas affected...Central Florida

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 708...

    Valid 121812Z - 121945Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to continue for the next
    hour or so across central Florida, but will slowly diminish heading
    into the late afternoon as low-level wind shear wanes. Additional
    watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and RAP mesoanalysis
    estimates continue to show a favorable tornado environment across
    central FL with MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg and
    effective SRH around 100-200 m2/s2. However, VWP observations from
    KTBW and KTPA show a gradual weakening of 1-3 km winds, which has
    resulted in a steady reduction of low-level SRH over the past few
    hours. This trend is expected to continue through the remainder of
    the afternoon as the surface low over the northeast Gulf begins to
    weaken. Consequently, the expectation is for a gradually diminishing severe/tornado threat after the 19/20 UTC period. Additional watch
    issuance beyond this time frame is currently not anticipated, and a
    temporal extension may be conditional on the development of more discrete/cellular storms that will have a higher probability of
    realizing the conditionally favorable environment (as opposed to the
    more linear/clustered storm modes currently being observed).

    ..Moore.. 10/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-l4BPsFF2HnXgMReRJfo4LdkN_7jvnoOuj6bnu64Sbq4tk3n6qWPVSpNYELNGUtvU7-OTz3_Z= bz1LlafrbI0GuO6VGU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 27798292 28448276 29088265 29538237 29918114 29568099
    28948070 28628067 28188160 27578220 27408256 27368275
    27798292=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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