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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2245

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 12 15:54:34 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 121554
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121553=20
    FLZ000-121800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2245
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1053 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

    Areas affected...Tampa Bay vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 708...

    Valid 121553Z - 121800Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest risk for a brief tornado may focus near the
    greater Tampa Bay vicinity through 200pm (1800 UTC).

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis indicates a very moist/buoyant
    airmass is located over the west-central portion of the FL Peninsula
    with mid-upper 80s deg F temperatures and near 80 deg dewpoints.=20
    This airmass was sampled by the 12 UTC TBW raob and little change
    has likely occurred thermodynamically except for slightly warmer
    surface temperatures. As a larger cluster of the convection west of
    Tampa Bay moves towards the bay over the next 1-2 hours, expecting intermittent/transient rotation with the stronger updrafts embedded
    within the larger convective cluster. 40-kt southwesterly 1-km AGL
    flow will maintain sufficiently enlarged hodographs for at least the
    next few hours and potentially favor transient low-level mesocyclone development capable of an isolated risk for near-shore
    waterspouts/tornadoes. It is unclear whether some of the focused
    tornado risk will be maintained as this activity moves farther
    inland into the central portions of the peninsula.

    ..Smith.. 10/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-L8nIfh0NmLLVyB7WD3opYvjIszdy3juEGcqPsZW9XZqNWgy3sTWaONX8utwK1eZ0lFMw5vIf= 81ZH-cnubyeoxtJIIY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27898290 28178260 28288232 28238211 28048214 27698247
    27358257 27308273 27648292 27898290=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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