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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2242

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 12 06:46:34 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 120646
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120645=20
    FLZ000-120845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2242
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0145 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

    Areas affected...North-central Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 707...

    Valid 120645Z - 120845Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 707 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across parts of the
    north-central Florida Peninsula tonight, as several potentially
    tornadic supercells move further inland across north-central
    Florida.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large expanse
    of rainfall from the Florida Panhandle extending eastward across the
    northern Florida Peninsula. A warm front is located near the
    southern edge of this large area of rain. Several discrete
    supercells, potentially tornadic, are ongoing across the western
    Florida Panhandle to the north of Tampa Bay. These cells will likely
    remain intact, moving northeastward across the north-central Florida
    Peninsula over the next few hours. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Tampa
    Bay and Melbourne, Florida have strong speed and directional shear
    in the lowest 1 km resulting in a clockwise turning hodograph. This
    is resulting in storm-relative helicity near 400 m2/s2, which is
    ideal for tornadoes. Short-term model forecasts continue to increase
    low-level shear late tonight, which will result in a continued
    tornado threat over the next 3 to 4 hours. Although a lull in storms
    is expected along the immediate west coast of the Florida Peninsula,
    an increase in cell coverage near the west coast may again take
    place later this morning.

    ..Broyles.. 10/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6osFg0ynif1xcEJqYdef4kVTj9OTArYDM_c2GHJl5jIlsJ-c5LM8Y9vIyOab-2FwD-eix8Kh3= hEZ1oqVRFviyVi6kqk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 29488263 29778235 29848200 29708127 29518111 29168111
    28568153 27988228 27898248 27898260 27988275 28368278
    28558275 29118271 29488263=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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