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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2241

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 12 04:23:37 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 120423
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120423=20
    FLZ000-120630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2241
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1123 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the FL Big Bend and FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 120423Z - 120630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms off the western FL coast have slowly intensified
    over the last few hours. Supercells with the potential for a few
    tornadoes are possible overnight. A Tornado Watch is being
    considered.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
    has shown steady intensification trend this evening as it has neared
    the coast of the FL Big Bend and central Peninsula. The kinematic
    environment ahead of these storms has slowly improved, and should
    continue to do so, this evening with a moderate low-level jet and
    strong mid-level flow head of a deepening coastal low. Area VADs
    show 0-1km SRH increasing to 250-300 m2/s2 supportive of storm
    organization and rotation. Some uncertainty remains with regard to
    the thermodynamic environment given the timing with the diurnal
    cycle. While temperatures have cooled, inland advection of
    high-theta-e air with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F should
    counteract nocturnal stabilization within the warm sector and allow
    for some northward movement of the warm front later tonight. The
    strongly sheared and weakly unstable environment will likely support
    a risk for supercells and a couple of tornadoes as storms move
    onshore tonight. A Tornado Watch may be needed across parts of the
    Big Bend and FL Peninsula within the hour.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kNfzWEa7duZoxqPPUaYx7fo5aaOsq-2x9l1wiceXuYi6rZWcfGNIpVY8atCyxd4UjewMmHTt= soGnmwP60iPPwJgRds$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29238305 29818356 29878360 30108419 29988440 30098457
    30218458 30438426 30438409 30398356 30198251 30018212
    29978205 29528162 29218148 29078149 28668142 28258142
    27848147 27388157 27208174 27078205 27218247 27468265
    27658282 28188275 28738274 28968279 29238305=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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