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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2240

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 12 02:41:01 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 120240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120240=20
    FLZ000-120415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2240
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0940 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of the western Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 120240Z - 120415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Portions of the western Florida Peninsula are being
    monitored for increasing severe-storm potential during the next
    couple of hours. The primary concern is the potential for a tornado
    or two in the near term.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts an east/west-oriented
    warm front extending from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into
    portions of central FL. Weak warm-air advection amid deep/rich
    tropospheric moisture (2.3 inch PW sampled by 00Z TBW sounding) and
    minimal inhibition are supporting isolated low-topped convection
    along the FL west coast. While poor deep-layer lapse rates and the
    weak forcing for ascent have limited updraft intensity/longevity
    thus far, a couple updrafts have shown signs of organization along
    the immediate coastal areas during the last 30 minutes. This is
    being aided by gradually expanding, clockwise-curved low-level
    hodographs (250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per TBW VWP). During the next
    couple of hours, isolated low-topped supercells will pose a threat
    of a tornado or two -- especially along/south of the warm front
    where antecedent heating amid upper 70s dewpoints is yielding
    moderate surface-based instability. With time, convection should
    further increase in intensity and coverage across portions of west
    FL and the FL Big Bend, as a surface low and strong low-level jet
    approach from the west.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 10/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84JoAYL_9OjKG_7w3L1szupkmxMQOs4f_BHIhLeH2bZ6RVE04tFKTI6t5QtLdsj8ZMBworTEy= gW-mHhaiIzTyqBFJlc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27598208 26868190 26698203 26638228 26948252 27408279
    27928291 28778289 28958266 28958242 28798211 28508203
    27598208=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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