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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2229

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 4 18:47:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041847=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-041945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2229
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

    Areas affected...The Texas Big Bend to the Permian Basin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 041847Z - 041945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected along the dryline this
    afternoon across West Texas with a primary threat for large
    (potentially very large) hail.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate to strong instability has developed ahead of a
    dryline across West Texas with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
    and dewpoints in the upper 60s. This has led to 2000 to 2500 J/kg
    MLCAPE with 40 to 45 knots of effective shear. Expect initial storms
    to be focused near the higher terrain in northern Mexico and the
    Davis Mountains where an enhanced cumulus field can already be seen
    on visible satellite. However, by later this afternoon, expect more
    widespread storm development as instability continues to increase
    and height falls overspread the region.

    Large hail will be the primary threat with these initial supercells.
    Given the long, straight hodographs, some splitting supercells will
    also be possible with the potential for very large (2-3 inch) hail.
    There is less mid-level shear farther south (near the Rio Grande)
    and thus, watch probabilities are more uncertain in this area.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 10/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5qm3mh4dVBaKTDYgySBqu_bK3gS8W0xLWD7LED8EDsVlCILGEDfRixoRPl50q9tOMfH6BG6qa= uXuSnIguAduKF0pBaA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29690420 30520412 31900330 32530310 32930279 33040126
    32980044 32900017 31890043 31520067 30290154 29710202
    29600255 29230281 28940289 28660306 28560350 28810397
    29690420=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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