ACUS11 KWNS 040844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040843=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-041115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of the central/eastern TX Panhandle
through northwestern OK.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 040843Z - 041115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours, increasing
thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to spread across the
discussion area from the TX Panhandle into northwestern OK.=20
Sporadic large hail is possible, and isolated gusts near severe
limits cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis shows a cold front from central KS south-southwestward across the northwesternmost part of the main
body of OK, then west-southwestward as a temporarily quasistationary
boundary to a low over the northern Panhandle near DUX. The cold
front continued southwestward from there to east-central NM. An
outflow boundary was drawn ahead of the front across north-central/ northwestern OK, moving south-southeastward about 15 kt but
decelerating, and likely to become quasistationary over north- central/northwestern OK in the next few hours. Along and ahead of
the front, a narrow plume of favorable low-level moisture was
evident, manifest at the surface as low-mid 60s F dewpoints.=20
Available GPS-derived data and modified RAP soundings suggest around 1.25-1.5-inch PW near ICT, gradually diminishing to around 0.75-1
inch over the north-central Panhandle. This will be maintained by a
corridor of southwesterly 25-35-kt flow near 850 mb for a few more
hours, diminishing after about 12Z due to the diurnal coupling
cycle.=20

In the meantime, IR satellite and radar imagery indicate widely
scattered young convection of varying depths, including a couple=20 thunderstorms, building in the central Panhandle roughly between
AMA-HHF. This activity is growing south of the surface frontal
zone, near the eastern rim of increasing large-scale ascent related
to a shortwave trough over the Four Corners region, and the western
part of the favorable low-level moisture field. Modified 00Z AMA
RAOB and forecast soundings indicate this activity is mostly
elevated above a shallow layer of diabatic, nocturnal near-surface stabilization, and should remain so as it moves east-northeastward
to northeastward and interacts with the top of the outflow pool
along and north of the prefrontal boundary. 25-40-kt effective-
shear magnitudes and MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg suggest a
parameter space favorable for storm-scale rotation and large hail
from the most intense cells. Given the fairly shallow nature of the near-surface stable layer, isolated strong-severe downdrafts also
may reach the surface.

..Edwards/Thompson.. 10/04/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-55R_K1CRHdhOBznU0s1ILtvMbAgtd-SjmAeNnU4OMs-SZO3ZYCevKqElu8HOlv3dCMj_tjNR= 4brSSp2yA7KokIslBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 35330017 35160136 35280187 35890197 36180170 36480005
36879864 36509788 35629863 35330017=20


=3D =3D =3D
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