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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2226

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 4 02:47:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 040247
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040246=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2226
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0946 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

    Areas affected...portions of south central KS and far northwest OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 702...

    Valid 040246Z - 040345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 702
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds continues across mainly
    southern portions of WW702. Storms across southwest KS may intensify
    as they shift eastward into the overnight, though confidence is low.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last half hour, IR and composite radar imagery
    showed the line of storms across south-central/southwest KS and
    northwest OK has slowly intensified. While the intensification trend
    has been slow, convergence along the advancing cold front and
    beneath the core of the LLJ may allow for further strengthening
    tonight. RAP soundings ahead of the storms show the environment
    likely remains moderately unstable and sheared. With the potential
    for storms to remain organized, damaging wind gusts are possible as
    they shift eastward tonight. Confidence is not overly high, but the
    slow intensification trend, favorable environment, and recent HRRR
    guidance do suggest the severe threat may persist for a few more
    hours tonight across mainly southern portions of WW702.

    ..Lyons.. 10/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7VFNNFf-XwMUEWEsVwUC1_cET0a6TnwS-ZuQZc640sAzrZUqKlcYADhZx_8SNPXLRCctBnsvj= GQPHFxDwF5m9X7pSq0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36470054 37799933 37849927 38419868 38579838 38609800
    38589748 38519729 38399717 38319714 37909727 37519750
    37139779 36939803 36789839 36579902 36429960 36310017
    36470054=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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