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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2223

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 3 23:56:41 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 032356
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032356=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-040130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2223
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

    Areas affected...eastern NE...southeast SD...southwest MN...and far
    western IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...701...

    Valid 032356Z - 040130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699, 701
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to grow upscale into a QLCS.
    The risk for winds and a brief tornado or two will continue.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2345 UTC, regional radar analysis shows much of
    the storms over NE and SD have grown upscale into a QLCS. Ahead of
    this line, the environment remains weak to moderately unstable,
    sufficient for storm maintenance. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear
    will continue to support storm organization within the QLCS. The
    linear mode will support a risk for damaging winds (some 70+ mph),
    especially with any sustained bowing segments or embedded
    supercells. Low-level shear should also increase into this evening
    as the low-level jet strengthens over eastern NE and far southeast
    SD. Area VADs already show initial signs of this with enlarging
    low-level hodographs below 1 km. While storm mode and boundary-layer
    RH are not optimal, a tornado or two will remain possible with
    embedded supercells or QLCS features this evening. Severe trends
    will be monitored over the next couple of hours for any local
    extension of WW701 eastward

    ..Lyons.. 10/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7l5h15mxQcnW1t0qqFcqHr11oOm2h_CkSuybFYvWD9h1zHsPcHzWjNhS8IdfhrPPpLHvPYrpW= lJ5HnDYGbmYUePzaeU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...

    LAT...LON 42989587 42499582 41779574 41249573 40869581 40549590
    40199612 40079651 39889770 39999820 40079840 40299856
    40589852 41119833 41359829 42649799 42969783 43279775
    43619775 44219778 44529745 44609714 44599647 44289606
    43869599 42989587=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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