1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2221

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 3 22:05:11 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 032205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032204=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-032300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2221
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central KS and far northwest OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

    Valid 032204Z - 032300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Deepening convection will likely organize into a mixed
    mode of supercells and line segments with a risk for all hazards. A
    new watch will be issued shortly.

    DISCUSSION...East of a dryline/sfc confluence zone, diurnal heating
    and ascent from an advancing mid-level trough has removed much of
    the inhibition over parts of central KS and far northwest OK.
    Initial storms have quickly deepened and should continue to do so
    with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE available. Increasing deep-layer shear
    of 40-50 kt, on top of an increasing low-level jet, will support
    storm organization into supercells and short line segments. Eventual
    upscale growth into one or more linear clusters appears likely as
    the cold front begins to surge eastward after dark. With a favorable
    overlap of shear and buoyancy supporting organized storms, damaging
    winds and hail (some 2+ in) appear likely with the strongest storms.
    Strong low-level shear may also support a tornado or two, but is
    more conditional upon supercells remaining discrete. Given the rapid
    increase in severe risk, a new watch will be needed shortly.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_BJuH_n95Vkt8fJ59Y1IkbP2VhIWXDwHDimHAQr5io5RisAvbUFWThhzLiBjiJ_4DmECtpM_k= QIDbSIwHsBN_hkiZ6k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 38140110 38720002 39269923 39829876 40069814 40119714
    39409677 38219703 37389746 36889784 36649869 36649983
    36800078 37200107 38140110=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)