ACUS11 KWNS 032146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032145=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-032315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Areas affected...eastern NE...and portions of southeastern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 032145Z - 032315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms across central NE and far northern KS should
expand eastward late this afternoon into the evening. The threat for
damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two will likely require a new
weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A complex convective scenario is evolving with
scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing across
portions of the central Plains ahead of an ejecting mid-level
trough. As lift from the trough expands eastward tonight, convective
coverage should also increase over parts of eastern NE into
southeastern SD. The environment remains favorable for organized
storms with 40-50 kt of effective shear allowing for a mixed mode of
supercells and line segments. Buoyancy is less favorable with north
and eastward extent where the air mass is cooler and slightly less
moist. However, with storms already established, 500-750 J/kg of
MLCAPE should be sufficient to support strong updrafts given the
degree of storm organization. Damaging winds and hail appear to be
the moist likely threats, but relatively strong low-level shear may
support the risk for a tornado or two with the more discrete
supercells or stronger QLCS segments. The exact north and eastward
extent of the risk is uncertain, but given the severe potential will
likely increase over the coming hours, a downstream weather watch
will be needed shortly

..Lyons/Hart.. 10/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4IiFcvERqDYOx2pBJxKumh-CIdgXsmeFKrSBYvyGskAodyE2Dpt9Ys7UyFK5aVnLlcQsbM2e9= xeYS9XvH3Yde7sOTVA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41609861 42559834 43209798 43569759 43699723 43689680
43179651 42659641 41909625 41339619 40679624 40409637
40069673 40069683 39999754 40009837 40049871 40179891
41609861=20


=3D =3D =3D
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