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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2213

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 3 00:22:35 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 030022
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030022=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-030215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2213
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0722 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

    Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 030022Z - 030215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection across the
    Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South Dakota this evening. At this
    time a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-level height falls are spreading across the
    northern/central High Plains in advance of approaching upper trough.
    In response to this feature, surface low has developed southeast of
    CYS, which will lift north-northeast into South Dakota later this
    evening. Latest diagnostic data exhibits substantial instability
    immediately ahead of the surface low over the NE Panhandle, south of
    the synoptic cold front. This wedge of buoyancy will support
    strong/severe convection over the next few hours before
    outflow/nocturnal cooling become less favorable for gusty
    downdrafts. Convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage
    across southeast WY/NE Panhandle/southwest SD. This activity should
    lift/spread north-northeast as LLJ strengthens over the next few
    hours. At this time it appears the risk for severe gusts will be too
    limited to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch; though, isolated
    severe is possible for the next few hours before boundary layer
    cools.

    ..Darrow/Edwards.. 10/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ewsK73CN2W--NVWfN1u49JBeQouUbAyrniWF08O4TaVh_MzemWpGtXjomaUIWixaZ_06J4Up= BhAMwEtBY75tGmVfuU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42460374 43450231 43290133 42030177 41080253 41120372
    42460374=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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