ACUS11 KWNS 022249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022249=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of the western TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022249Z - 030015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms in eastern NM may pose a
risk for damaging gusts and hail into portions of the western TX
Panhandle and south Plains this evening. A new watch is possible,
but uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 2235 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, ongoing across
parts of far eastern NM. Occasional severe gusts and hail have been
occurring with this convection as it slowly tracks east/northeast
toward the TX border. Thus far, the strongest vertical shear
(observed from area VWPs and SPC SFCOA) has remained on the NM side
of the border given the mostly meridional deep-layer flow. However,
some of the stronger flow aloft may gradually shift eastward into
the far western TX Panhandle and south Plains over the next couple
of hours. The environment remains broadly favorable along the NM/TX
border for storm organization into supercells with 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear. However, the severe threat
likely decreases rapidly beyond the first row or two of counties in
TX, with much weaker vertical shear and buoyancy in place over the
central Panhandle. While uncertain, a few storms may pose enough of
a severe risk that a new small weather watch is possible.

..Lyons/Edwards.. 10/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9X1xb-Qr_MBmxKG78JOCAG5W9XjPRUXQ2v7GdP8l5_BHwB7lC-ZQtQRQJTQ3XkP8iCv2KPv80= HUd08VndIJzdnF8syY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35120304 35490291 35580260 35500235 35040217 34150213
33490210 33150211 33040216 32850235 32860264 32930288
33140307 35120304=20


=3D =3D =3D
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