ACUS11 KWNS 021951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021950=20
KSZ000-COZ000-022115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021950Z - 022115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving off the higher terrain may pose a threat for
isolated large hail and wind gusts this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed over the mountains across
southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico this afternoon. As these
storms mature, they will move off of the terrain and into the
eastern Colorado Plains. These storms will experience a gradually
warmer and more moist airmass as they move east. In fact,
temperatures have now warmed well into the 80s with MLCAPE 1000 to
1500 J/kg across far eastern Colorado. However, shear will also
decrease with eastward extent. Therefore, expect storms with at
least transient organization/supercell structures and the potential
for some occasionally severe hail or wind gusts. The threat is
expected to remain too marginal for a severe thunderstorms watch.

..Bentley/Grams.. 10/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EUjeJxosy-RZNTFtWUjuYSPHTq0BMrJPhetABejugsRgkvhnkbOzLxFdCw8hX86qPrLCAiTo= qvwAqbuRSKjQ1PtAcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37140212 37010274 37060429 37130493 38000464 38500442
39380401 39670337 39670267 39570206 38960201 37570212
37140212=20


=3D =3D =3D
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