ACUS11 KWNS 282216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282216=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-282315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Areas affected...portions of western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282216Z - 282315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or wind may occur with
one of the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain sparse
and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have experienced an uptick in
intensity over the past couple of hours along a baroclinic zone.
Steep low-level lapse rates atop upper 60s F dewpoints are
contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Veering with height of the
tropospheric wind fields is supporting 30-40 kts of effective bulk
shear, which is encouraging the organization of transient supercell thunderstorms. Given poor mid-level lapse rates/marginal instability
and modest vertical wind shear, the severe threat should be limited
to a couple instances of severe hail/wind with the stronger, more
persistent supercell storms. Given the isolated nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wp6E4_ZnHWXvLbHnxs9e3mFooyqqXKMOCtCqFu85xf6PWwnaF9GpV-TZcuvHLjTAOw7iyjGA= jDAC6L6YVd5ZrbaolU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36398944 36658897 36558853 36318831 35908816 35428825
35228855 35228889 35468924 36058952 36398944=20


=3D =3D =3D
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