ACUS11 KWNS 261831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261830 COR
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-261945-
Mesoscale Discussion 2198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Iowa into northern
Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 261830Z - 261945Z
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated instances of hail and perhaps a brief tornado are
possible this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...The boundary layer continues to warm beneath cooler
mid-level temperatures associated with a 500 mb cut-off low centered
over far eastern IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid
70s to 80 F amid 58-60 F dewpoints, with 7.5-8.5 C/km boundary layer
lapse rates contributing to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with well over 100
J/kg of CAPE established in the lowest 3 km. Though vertical wind
shear is mediocre beneath this upper low, -14 to -16 C 500 mb
temperatures may encourage a couple bouts of hail with the stronger
cells. Furthermore, sufficient vertical vorticity is in place to
support a brief tornado wherever one of the stronger, longer-lasting
storms can thrive in locally higher 0-3 km CAPE. Nonetheless, the
severe threat should remain sparse and localized, likely precluding
a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/26/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4YzqWrxJYo12WHZnS_HDAiHzf9GbMgF1IcSbhOGLJeaNpYeOZsF_TcuaZpFus_nz64KaesSWe= QBGsyrrdYE7xBPsrCg$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40388972 41229098 41699143 42089127 42479056 42528952
42278851 41888786 41408762 40918760 40528790 40338847
40388972=20
=3D =3D =3D
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