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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2193

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 25 00:09:49 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 250009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250009=20
    TXZ000-250215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2193
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0709 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 695...

    Valid 250009Z - 250215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 695
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will
    continue over the next few hours across central and northeastern
    Texas, in/near WW 695.

    DISCUSSION...Strong/locally severe thunderstorms are ongoing, within
    WW 596, near and ahead of a nearly stationary surface front. Ahead
    of the boundary, a strongly unstable airmass (2500 to 3500 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE) persists per RAP-based surface analysis, which is
    supporting locally intense convection.

    Local VAD wind profiles continue to reveal flow veering/increasing
    with height, from southerly near-surface in the 0-1 km to
    west-northwesterly at 40 kt at mid levels -- which is supporting
    ongoing supercells. As such, risk for large hail and locally
    damaging winds will continue over the next few hours. Additionally,
    a tornado cannot be ruled out -- particularly over northern portions
    of the watch near the weak warm-frontal zone.

    While storms near eastern fringes of the watch may drift
    eastward/out of the WW, south-southeastward storm motion should
    limit any eastward expansion of the risk, which could preclude any
    need for new WW issuance. We will continue however to monitor
    evolution of the risk east of the existing WW.

    ..Goss.. 09/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7x5jlqIk-Yrt2BFUXb77In6PwmvKQwnA7wgXCYya5inj9YZQTGYIDUuLOUwe7-Q_ChNJpzUj5= _uROa7LDB5q2NSv0Gw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30809977 31379832 31859765 33149720 33619638 33809519
    33439441 32649416 31389507 30549665 29989792 30169936
    30809977=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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