ACUS11 KWNS 232324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232323=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...

Valid 232323Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691
continues.

SUMMARY...The environment across central to northern Iowa remains
conditionally favorable for organized convection; however, it is
unclear how much re-development will occur in the coming hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a well-established cold
pool lingering over central to northern IA. Although mid-level
drying is overspreading the region, a stout low-level stratus deck
is muting late-day diurnal heating with temperatures largely
remaining in the 70s (and even falling in a few locations). Latest
RAP mesoanalysis estimates and forecast soundings show diminishing
MLCAPE with meager buoyancy profiles due to the stable low-level
conditions. Despite the thermodynamic challenges, strong low aloft
is maintaining elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values
on the order of 40-45 knots. Overall, this environment remains
conditionally supportive for organized (likely elevated) convection
given residual MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg. But confidence in redevelopment is low: GOES IR and low-level water-vapor imagery
depicts slow deepening of convective cells within a weak warm
advection regime over the warm front/cold pool, and convective
development along the cold front in eastern NE is similarly
sluggish. Areas across northern to northeast IA may see the best
near-term severe threat where ongoing convection is showing some
signs of gradual intensification, but the severe threat becomes less
clear with southwestward extent.

..Moore.. 09/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5sbfIIfLhYVBRP0QULSGq1lGgH7mqPmLhD6Kwyik0QDAK1oS5ULPuDxQ475r5ZbkCFDnXel1C= KmoDYOOFGL5stY702w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41479476 41619521 41959542 43229547 43549537 43669500
43709321 43529277 42989242 42259233 41749245 41549269
41459308 41479476=20


=3D =3D =3D
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