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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2185

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 23 20:40:10 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 232040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232039=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-232215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2185
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

    Areas affected...Central/northeast IA into southeast MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...

    Valid 232039Z - 232215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind may persist with an
    ongoing storm cluster late this afternoon. Additional development
    remains possible by early evening into parts of southern IA.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived bowing storm cluster is currently
    approaching northeast IA and southeast MN. While this system remains
    relatively well organized with a moderately strong surface cold
    pool, recent observed wind gusts have been subsevere. However, with
    some modest heating/destabilization noted downstream into northeast
    IA and far southeast MN, some damaging-wind threat may still evolve
    as this cluster moves northeastward late this afternoon. While this
    cluster will eventually move out of WW 691, the need for additional
    downstream watch issuance is uncertain, and will depend on
    short-term trends regarding the intensity and organization of this
    cluster.=20

    Farther south, some clearing and diurnal heating is underway across south-central IA, though MLCINH remains substantial (per recent
    objective mesoanalyses). Depending on the extent of additional heating/destabilization late this afternoon, additional isolated
    storm development cannot be ruled out through early evening, with
    wind profiles (as noted on the KDMX VWP) remaining conditionally
    favorable for organized convection.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Ge-zZC9eP9ZwbhiUSPrzY2zzO7HdV0Zhq5Fnf-_wZ2h9axV4_O0UmCzu6L-OwDkmNIkcJVwW= loeU2zAOWiJqQADoTA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43539380 43949242 43919172 43549159 43109172 42329212
    42149222 41779241 41499270 41349301 41219357 41299398
    41529433 42839359 43539380=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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