ACUS11 KWNS 231933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231933=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-232200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...Southeast KS...North-Central/Northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231933Z - 232200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms development is likely across southeast KS
and north-central/northeast OK over the next few hours. Supercells
capable of very large hail and strong gusts are expected, with a
watch likely needed within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles north-northeast of CNK along the KS/NE border. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across central KS and back into western
OK. A pre-frontal trough also extends southward from this low
through central KS and north-central OK back in southwest OK. The
airmass downstream from these features continues to warm and
destabilize, with temperatures now in the upper 80s/lows 90s,
dewpoints in the low 70s, and MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg.=20

This region is south of the primary forcing, but broad convergence
across the warm sector, along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough,
is contributing to building cumulus. Some more substantial
development is underway southwest of TUL, which may be indicative of
the mode of future pre-frontal development. General expectation is
still for the most of the thunderstorm development to occur later
this afternoon/evening along front. However, given the recent
trends, earlier initiation, possibly along the pre-frontal trough,
is possible.=20

Overall environment supports robust storm development, including
supercells capable of very large hail and strong gusts. A watch will
eventually be needed once signs that more than isolated storm
development is underway.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!85eaL5fO-_KtIl4cq84WdTJtb-iQNF4P1Od1NJMFu2bqtv_dZvaWr_qDgHnSY1AZKKfzyCACV= kvny8ETue8KxziSxpk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37819652 38669618 38579503 37959466 35939539 35389630
35579703 36539712 37819652=20


=3D =3D =3D
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