ACUS11 KWNS 231223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231222=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-231445-
Mesoscale Discussion 2179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Areas affected...parts of northeastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 231222Z - 231445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be accompanied by
some risk for a brief tornado through the 10 am- Noon time frame
across areas near and south of the Hampton Roads vicinity. It is
not clear that a tornado watch is needed, but trends will continue
to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Ophelia continues a slow north-northwestward migration,
to the north of the Morehead City vicinity. Low-level hodographs
are enlarged and clockwise curved to the northeast of its center,
but with near-surface flow initially northerly and only gradually
veering to an easterly component within this regime, the tropically
moist boundary layer has largely remained offshore.=20=20
Weak boundary-layer destabilization has been supported by surface
dew point increases into the lower 70s F, but this has been confined
to a small portion of the northeastern North Carolina into
southeastern Virginia coastal plain. Little substantive change
appears likely into midday, but convection has been increasing in a
broken band pivoting inland around the northeastern periphery of
Ophelia, toward the Hampton Roads vicinity of southeastern Virginia.
Given the presence of an environment marginally supportive of modest
low-level mesocyclone strengthening within the short-lived stronger
convection, a brief tornado may not be out of the question through
14-16Z.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 09/23/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Oh5trIXsGFfr8hbY-dKuFDAGuNPhzvJDf2xe51CB-ydcOzEPFRMaiMXNhO2Ha0SuXaxJGEKy= _jAeAKugmODr_a6-ZY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...
LAT...LON 37157654 37257604 36277581 36477626 36297677 37157654=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)