ACUS11 KWNS 230727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230727=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-231000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...parts of western through central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230727Z - 231000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable
within the next couple of hours, with the evolution of an organizing
cluster possible through 5-7 AM CDT. Stronger storms may be
accompanied by a risk for severe hail, at least initially. The risk
for severe surface gusts currently appears low, but trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Beneath the leading (northern) edge of a plume of warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air advecting across the central
Great Plains, lower level warming and moistening is contributing to
substantive destabilization across southwestern through central
Nebraska. CAPE for most unstable parcels, within a saturating
environment rooted above a more stable near-surface layer, now
appears to be increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg, as an upstream
mid-level low gradually shifts across and east of the northern
Rockies.

Mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of
a mid-level jet streak (50-60 kt around 500 mb) propagating
east-northeast of the Colorado Rockies, is forecast to overspread
much of western through central Nebraska and adjacent portions of
South Dakota by 09-12Z. As it does, it will likely overcome the
inhibition and support increasing convective development. Given the
potential instability, and strong shear within the cloud-bearing
layer, this probably will include convection capable of producing
severe hail, at least initially. Aided by lift associated with the lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, an organizing cluster may
gradually develop through daybreak. This could eventually be
accompanied by a developing MCV and strengthening rear inflow toward
daybreak. However, even if this occurs, the potential for damaging
gusts to reach the surface current appears low, due to the stable
near-surface layer.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 09/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ZPA5g7pONwIv4JNZkIwvvslPUfKUQJlOcJnLxCj5zxS-MYGcMwewu-sHYbNPlQpEIrveKYXo= JvGeZybjkjicCxiuGQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42680158 43580048 42729849 40549931 40700131 42050164
42680158=20


=3D =3D =3D
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