1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2177

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 23 01:02:33 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 230102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230102=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-230300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2177
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0802 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689...

    Valid 230102Z - 230300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms is
    probable later this evening across southeast Wyoming into the
    Nebraska Panhandle, so the severe weather threat continues.

    DISCUSSION...Initial convection across southeast WY and the NE
    Panhandle has waned over the past hour - likely a result of storms
    exiting the corridor of better buoyancy and the onset of nocturnal stabilization - with no clear immediate severe threats. However,
    latest RAP mesoanalysis continues to depict a reservoir of 1000-2000
    J/kg MUCAPE across this region. To the west across central WY, GOES
    IR imagery has shown clear signals of broad-scale ascent over the
    past few hours as the main upper trough (and the attendant mid-level
    jet max) translate east. Additional thunderstorm develop appears
    probable across central to southeast WY in the coming hours as this
    ascent overspreads the MUCAPE reservoir. The approach of the
    mid-level jet will maintain elongated hodographs through the
    effective inflow-EL layer that should support supercells with an
    attendant large (to perhaps very large) hail risk. While the exact
    timing of this second round is uncertain, the severe risk should
    continue and warrants maintaining portions of WW 689 and/or a new
    watch in the coming hours.

    ..Moore.. 09/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5BbI7z5yosQNNWZi9mCEsin1C_MLpwXQM1hzafCsLRuSkP2I-D9ZHOX3BX61Nqs5tswkQbpGV= 16l7r6z6yOrGx7KMhs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41030436 41290468 41890486 42540481 42850456 42960405
    42970267 42760230 42150210 41430214 41080241 40990279
    40990395 41030436=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)