ACUS11 KWNS 222056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222056=20
IAZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222056Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated instance of hail or a brief tornado may
accompany the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced MCV continues to slowly progress eastward
across IA, with widespread cloud cover and occasional bouts of
precipitation contaminating the warm sector. A west-to-east
baroclinic zone has been reinforced across eastern parts of IA, and
it is here where some of the latest high-resolution guidance depicts
isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon. Tropospheric lapse
rates are modest at best, but seasonable moisture (i.e. mid to upper
60s F surface dewpoints) are contributing to nearly 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. As such, an instance or two of hail may accompany the
stronger storms. Any storm that can sustain near the baroclinic zone
may also benefit from locally higher vertical-oriented vorticity to
support an isolated/brief tornado. Given the overall sparse storm
coverage expected this afternoon, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82ne440UlMKDlOHtZD8F8mAkVpPnpZ0vQ6pqQqyGEWdyBRWkmPec0pzepWha2B0mgN8TSSaPE= 9lh1qYhC7CuJ-SbWv4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42959200 42939156 42839121 42509086 41829084 41529102
41319145 41219198 41329262 41569279 41939280 42669251
42879211 42959200=20


=3D =3D =3D
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