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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2174

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 22 18:18:59 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 221818
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221818=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2174
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0118 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern WY into southwest SD and the NE Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221818Z - 222015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase
    with time this afternoon. Eventual watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning convection, partial clearing and
    diurnal heating has aided in modest destabilization across parts of
    eastern WY into the NE Panhandle, with MLCAPE increasing into the
    500-1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm development has recently been
    noted across east-central WY, and a general increase in storm
    coverage and intensity is expected through the afternoon.=20

    As midlevel flow gradually veers and increases in advance of a
    mid/upper-level low near the UT/ID border, wind profiles will become increasingly favorable for organized storms, and a couple of
    supercells may evolve with time. Steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support large hail of 1.5 to 2 inches in
    diameter, conditional on supercell development. A tornado or two
    will also be possible if multiple sustained supercells can develop.
    In order to address these threats, watch issuance is possible later
    this afternoon.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_CR2dxxPs-aSEhVZomRMXu69_olRjsa_3S_ucgy0CuKyfIQg8iUSuGKnV0dUc4JzykBJUtc_e= eWcPkljpCcsiDq9vbc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43980684 44600619 44470369 44010294 43130256 41850309
    41420325 41470430 42190538 42590627 42810633 43980684=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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