1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2172

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 21 22:19:27 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 212219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212218=20
    MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2172
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212218Z - 220015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms appear probable this evening
    with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail. However,
    this risk should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, isolated thunderstorms have
    initiated across eastern KS with somewhat rapid cloud top cooling
    noted in IR imagery (approximately 20 C over a 20 minute window).
    Broken cloud cover through the afternoon has muted diurnal
    destabilization to some degree, but seasonally rich low-level
    moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE values upwards of
    2000 J/kg. Additionally, southeasterly low-level flow under
    southwesterly winds aloft is supporting effective bulk shear values
    near 35 knots - sufficiently for organized cells. Although the
    regional environment is supportive of supercells with an attendant
    hail/wind risk, east/southeast KS is on the periphery of stronger
    mesoscale and synoptic ascent to the northwest across northern KS
    and NE. This casts uncertainty onto storm coverage, and slow storm
    motions should limit the potential for storm interactions/upscale
    growth. Consequently, this threat should remain fairly isolated, and
    a watch will likely not be needed.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 09/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9DIkkoAtD2KzNM05RIgbL_rwf05ueku2AJi-pkm_6md8Y81f-yoZWH7UkekbbSoGol05c1GVA= WGLc3JKR5c16zfwVOA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37089605 37569650 38159697 38739706 38929702 39139669
    39079624 38679546 38159501 37569460 37149449 36759460
    36649505 36709542 37089605=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)