ACUS11 KWNS 212143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212143=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212143Z - 212345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few
hours, and a few strong to severe storms appear likely. Severe wind
and large hail will be the primary threats, but confidence in the coverage/duration of this threat is limited and watch issuance is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway across central
to eastern NM within the left-exit region of an approaching upper
jet. This high-based activity is developing on the western fringe of
the low-level moisture plume over the Plains with dewpoints in the
upper 40s to low 50s and dewpoint depressions upwards of 40-50 F
noted in latest surface obs. Although buoyancy profiles are somewhat
meager (MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg), the deeply-mixed low-level
thermodynamic profile is conducive for strong to severe downburst
winds. Combined with weak low-level flow, this may favor
undercutting outflows and storm clustering with time, which limits
confidence in the duration of any particular strong/severe storm.
However, strong speed shear in the 0-6 km layer will support initial
cell organization with an attendant hail risk. The expectation over
the next several hours is for additional storms to develop across
eastern NM, slowly intensifying (with perhaps some
clustering/upscale growth) as they migrate into the TX/OK Panhandles
where low-level moisture improves. However, increasing inhibition
closer to the TX/western OK border and the onset of nocturnal
cooling later this evening may limit the eastward extent of the
threat.

..Moore/Thompson.. 09/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!70HD17SVaN51DzcPPBw1QjXkZ9I_gjD9mafEAWouAa68sbvqv68xWEh4F7e8Y8wLDp7aGZ81K= YdKmZaz_1TsLY3fGgc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33500539 33750532 36570391 36760369 37300238 37370157
37160094 36540052 35430051 34140145 33480266 33120417
33040464 33020500 33100523 33300532 33500539=20


=3D =3D =3D
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