ACUS11 KWNS 200416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200416=20
TXZ000-200615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 200416Z - 200615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A lingering isolated supercell continues to pose a risk
for severe hail, but still appears likely to steadily, if not more
rapidly, weaken as it moves southeast of Stephenville, toward the
Temple vicinity, through 1-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell propagating across the
Stephenville vicinity has begun to weaken, but radar data, including
the MRMS Mesh, suggests that it is still producing severe hail as it
moves south-southeastward around 30 kt. This cell appears focused
within the exit region of a strong northwesterly high-level jet (80+
kt around 300 mb), where storm-scale dynamic forcing supported by
strong deep-layer shear likely has slowed storm dissipation.=20
Activity has been moving into an environment characterized by warmer
mid-levels with progressively weaker mid-level lapse rates and lower precipitable water. This appears to result in a drop off in CAPE
from around 1000 J/kg to around 500 J/kg south of Stephenville into
the Temple vicinity, which probably will result in at least a
continued gradual weakening of the cell during the next couple of
hours.

..Kerr/Bunting.. 09/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5zLqU8JWu2NNATcutWxSV217MCH9cGD_NBZRCY3SSMeVcFSNNv4itpbiTw7bJLip4txSc0L0= beLb7AI2R1sucyo5pU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON 32449815 31799739 31169734 31109799 32189849 32449815=20


=3D =3D =3D
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