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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2160

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 17 17:46:17 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 171746
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171745=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-171945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2160
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1245 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Georgia into southwest South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171745Z - 171945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph) are possible this
    afternoon as storm coverage and intensity gradually increases. A
    watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s F in
    southeast Georgia early this afternoon. The boundary layer has
    largely become uncapped and showers/thunderstorms have begun to form
    within this area of stronger heating with perhaps some additional
    support from weak pre-frontal convergence. Into southwestern South
    Carolina, temperatures have also warmed into the low 80s behind
    early day convection. With additional surface heating, storms should
    gradually intensify this afternoon as MLCAPE increases to 1000-1500
    J/kg. Enhanced mid-level winds (effective shear of around 30 kts)
    from a trough moving through the southeast will help storms
    organize. The primary hazard will be isolated damaging wind gusts.
    The tornado threat with this activity will be low given the veered
    surface winds and consequent weak low-level SRH. Additional storms
    along the front will pose a similar threat as they move into the
    region, though shear parallel to the boundary will likely mean a
    more linear storm mode.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5aKx1-OWcTZpbG_BXwxTXdtmh1VEthXe5r2rwbuTIFPxNBfYcZFM0imiNRp0NTXOLplGx_eow= NyXDl8xtvIbAsdzDaY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31428136 31168177 31088221 31008289 31198370 31518382
    31918359 32118298 32428228 32918164 33388096 33398044
    32838035 31908086 31428136=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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