ACUS11 KWNS 161930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161930=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-162130-
Mesoscale Discussion 2158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023
Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska...Northeast
Kansas...portions of western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 161930Z - 162130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few marginal supercells storms may produce large hail
and isolated strong/severe wind gusts this afternoon. A watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery now entering the Coulee Region in west-central Wisconsin. A
broader trough extends southwest into the central Plains. Modest
forcing along a weak surface boundary in conjunction with the
mid-level trough has helped initiate what has so far been isolated
convection in southeastern Nebraska. Shear in parts of the Missouri
Valley is maximized as the mid-level jet is moving through the
region. While moisture is not overly rich (dewpoints in the upper
50s to low 60s) temperatures aloft are cold enough (-16 C on OAX 12Z
observed sounding) to support modest (around 1000 J/kg) MLCAPE.
Through the remainder of the afternoon, widely scattered storms will
continue to develop and pose a risk for large hail (1-1.5 in.) and
isolated strong to severe wind gusts. With modest buoyancy and
forcing, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal.
..Wendt/Hart.. 09/16/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7rjICJRzI64IkG0fpjBgVcHRYeTm-GHVTAjxYdOlXIToZdn1glOtCZ-03APNkOg2YZsAXP54X= H9W9t05_tyrKjm2ukk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 40509532 39909459 38629430 38159442 38029515 38089613
38299664 38759745 39099781 40029813 40399761 40559610
40509532=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)