ACUS11 KWNS 161352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161351=20
TXZ000-161515-
Mesoscale Discussion 2157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023
Areas affected...central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685...
Valid 161351Z - 161515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685
continues.
SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe gusts may persist another 1-2
hours before thunderstorms weaken. A downstream watch is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION...An overall weakening trend has been observed over the
past 30-60 minutes with a bowing cluster of storms moving across the
Concho Valley/central TX. Much of the trailing convection to the south/southwest of the apex has decreased in intensity
substantially. However, a 44 kt gust was reported at SJT about an
hour ago, and a gust to 64 kt was reported at the West Texas Mesonet
site at Doole about 30 minutes ago.=20
The overall expectation is that convection will continue to weaken
in a modestly unstable airmass characterized by weak vertical shear,
poor lapse rates, and decreasing warm advection as storms continue
to shift east/southeast. A couple of strong/severe gusts near the
apex may persist in the short term, but a downstream watch is not
currently expected.
..Leitman.. 09/16/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Bv5Eam4E4BgCfbwyZQ7t_8gb-hgkQxb92L74bFx3lBrHfMl9NhETS3a-tyD8RAT8DZztTcKf= 0EGslb2AO9FQS8EVIg$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31809954 31779830 31149773 30679779 30349811 30289896
30569958 30930000 31209999 31519986 31809954=20
=3D =3D =3D
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