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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2154

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 16 06:17:06 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 160617
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160616=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-160745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2154
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeast NM and West Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684...

    Valid 160616Z - 160745Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely persist beyond the
    the scheduled 07z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684. A
    local watch extension in time and area may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...One notable severe thunderstorm was located over Lea
    County of southeast NM at 0610z, while other episodically
    strong/severe storms were located farther east into the Texas South
    Plains. These storms were moving southeast in advance of a cold
    front, and within an environment characterized by 35-40 kts of
    effective shear and MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. With greater
    instability and more supportive mid-level lapse rates across the NM
    portion of the watch, storms over Lea County, NM and adjacent areas
    of West Texas are most likely to remain severe over the next few
    hours. This scenario is supported by recent hi-res guidance, and an
    extension in time and area may be needed for WW 684 prior to
    expiration at 07z.

    Storms farther east across the West Texas portion of the watch will
    remain within an environment of weaker instability, but may still
    briefly intensify to strong/near severe levels.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 09/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9OtHDbLpklMbk4cOo2QyUUJMXWKWRDG7gM3RPtEi3YbPxF2Y7n8ojNwHa4h5j0j-6oQle_slH= 08vsePDUjB0YEUWn24$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32130181 32060324 32330404 33120444 33750443 34230339
    34400245 34460078 34280058 33470053 33120150 32130181=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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