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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2153

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 16 03:57:05 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 160357
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160356=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-160600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2153
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1056 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

    Areas affected...east central/southeast New Mexico and the Texas
    South Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684...

    Valid 160356Z - 160600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development may persist, and
    pose a continuing risk for occasional severe hail and locally strong
    wind gusts, while spreading southward across the Texas South Plains
    and adjacent portions of eastern New Mexico through 1-3 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...In general, there has been little change to convective
    trends along the southward advancing front to the lee of the
    southern Rockies during the past couple of hours. The corridor of
    weak frontogenetic forcing is still providing the primary focus for
    strong thunderstorm development, which remains largely discrete and
    scattered in nature while propagating south-southeastward.=20=20

    With warm advection above the frontal zone remaining weak, and the
    modest pre-frontal boundary-layer instability beginning to wane,
    potential for appreciable upscale convective growth and organization
    appears low, as the cold front advances toward the Trans-Pecos
    region through 06-08Z. However, lingering scattered strong
    thunderstorms may continue to occasionally pose a risk for severe
    hail and locally strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 09/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!553opoS79FYaWkfm3K8iiZb3G_9B_TvTOwPhFzNg4Ujwe399HuSU0WtPvikl_PjSjQVcUEm3c= 1lc6qxH7dUGIMn7Vbs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34180445 34440367 34240187 33940099 32450064 32310197
    32400298 32820434 34180445=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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