ACUS11 KWNS 152010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152010=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Areas affected...Eastern NM into parts of west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152010Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
expected through late afternoon. Eventual watch issuance is
possible, though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed near/east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains in northeast NM. Storm coverage is
expected to increase through late afternoon across northeast NM and
eventually into east-central NM, as a midlevel shortwave near the
Four Corners region continues to impinge upon a gradually
destabilizing environment. Modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg) and effective shear of around 30 kt are marginally sufficient
for a few organized storms through the afternoon across northeast
NM, with isolated hail and strong winds possible.=20

Some increase in deep-layer shear is possible with time late this
afternoon into the evening, as midlevel westerly flow gradually
increases in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. This may
allow for eventual development of a supercell or two, with any
right-moving cells tending to propagate southeastward into a
somewhat more unstable environment. Should this evolution occur, an
increase in the threat for hail and localized severe gusts will be
possible by early evening. Watch issuance is possible if confidence
increases in the development of multiple supercells, though the
onset of a greater severe threat and timing of any watch issuance
remain somewhat uncertain.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wKH3_Na8PRU9l-cvBmx_TyawMQFAx6dLp2Qb9jmJtKMamY6-jQwRNQ5t5_4FAIOuoVl6qGtr= hnWbzm1QdrYjoZPUm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35860533 36460478 36490389 36020302 35170256 35030250
33990253 32620268 32830426 32920512 33410517 34400534
34830531 35030531 35360534 35860533=20


=3D =3D =3D
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