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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2150

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 15 08:43:04 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 150842
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150842=20
    TXZ000-151045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2150
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into Northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150842Z - 151045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move east-southeast
    across portions of west Texas this morning. Strong-to-severe wind
    gusts will remain possible for the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A linear mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to
    organize across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into West
    Texas. The southern area of this linear MCS has organized more
    quickly than the northern area and has strengthened over the last
    hour. Recent reports in the wake of the line indicate winds ranging
    from 60-80 miles per hour. The overall environment ahead of this
    line of storms remains favorable for continued strong-to-severe
    gusts (most-unstable CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg and effective-layer
    shear around 30 knots) for at least the next hour. After then
    uncertainty increases as the storms will be moving into an
    increasingly more stable atmosphere with most-unstable CAPE values
    around 500 J/kg and a deepening nocturnally stable layer. However,
    given the established nature of the MCS, severe wind potential may
    persist into the less favorable environment. The area will continued
    to be monitored.

    ..Marsh/Grams.. 09/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Pqb4wNu5Z31p157BC4ph-sSexDUpJmq2ZjAk7foPo1KAhNxyoNRvcTadLFMNgmLmIDK__2a_= uv1ouoE_Vq_iY6hBuk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

    LAT...LON 33230202 34000192 34200054 34049958 33449893 32879877
    32369909 33020068 33230202=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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