ACUS11 KWNS 131514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131514=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-131715-

Mesoscale Discussion 2145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Areas affected...southeastern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131514Z - 131715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong storms -- capable of producing
gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail -- continues moving eastward
across southern New England. WW issuance possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an organized cluster of storms
moving eastward across eastern Connecticut at around 30 kt. The
storms are moving through an environment that is marginally
unstable, but with some boundary-layer heating ongoing through a
layer of high clouds overspreading the area, storms that are nearly surface-based at this point should become more solidly rooted within
the boundary layer in the next hour or so.

Morning OKX RAOB, and latest VWP from the KBOX WSR-88D show 34 to 45
kt mid-level flow, atop a low-level profiled that veers weakly with
height. This implies sufficient shear for a continuation of the
organized convective cluster -- and associated potential for locally
damaging wind gusts and marginal hail. Additionally, a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out if cellular convection -- hinted at
ahead of the main band at this time -- can become more robust. WW
issuance remains uncertain, but we will continue to monitor in the
short term.

..Goss/Guyer.. 09/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5MoZo2Z29rDKeqaKV5F8G4szEePqorrICzyfIKYMkKgSGqiIxiyR9L-MJd-3Ddx8IiHj7rI7i= PlvIYUIAF3DiFOftFo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 41577224 42107209 42777080 42076966 41326985 41167203
41577224=20


=3D =3D =3D
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