ACUS11 KWNS 131210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131210=20
CTZ000-MAZ000-131345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Areas affected...Southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131210Z - 131345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated and short-lived potential for a strong gust and
even a brief tornado will exist across CT for the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm over western CT has shown some
modest supercellular characteristics over the past hour as it
interacts with the warm front extending across the region. Surface
winds are generally weak, but there is still decent low-level
veering in place. Recent OKX VAD sampled around 25 kt of 0-1 km
shear and near 185 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Buoyancy
from modest in areas where surface temperatures are in the low to
mid 70s (generally Long Island into CT), decreases quickly north of
the warm front where temperatures are the mid to upper 60s. Given
the only modestly favorable and spatially constrained environmental
conditions, any additional intensification and organization would
likely be short-lived. Even so, a strong downburst or brief tornado
cannot be ruled out.

..Mosier/Grams.. 09/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4iDNbUOL5FK5ucRVoxfQsLEjLnLf2xPb6ZTeUxLKb-TJllRNf-Jj4hw-usc05AD91fcGCwyua= 6iXbnjvacDK_YcfdCI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41837332 41997294 42037250 41937220 41677232 41427261
41287289 41377331 41837332=20


=3D =3D =3D
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