ACUS11 KWNS 122129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122128=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-122300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona and southern New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122128Z - 122300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential may occur over the next
few hours. Isolated bouts of severe hail/wind may accompany the
strongest storms and a WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms near the AZ/NM/international border area have
been percolating in intensity over the last couple of hours, with
MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing an increase in 1 inch MESH tracks
with some of the strongest storms. Recently, robust convective
initiation has taken place in far western Pinal County, AZ, where
slightly elongated hodographs and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE support
supercell structures capable of severe hail. A severe gust or two
also cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms. Overall, the
severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 09/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8XZpQhUpy8nin26abt4qeMALvuacR4_8eOIv6n9Y-WIaysrmsBZwN4e-doNZFUvfnD3sKdi0A= pE7sRihUGACO9sOLFY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32921274 33661157 33930973 33380717 32890615 32430621
31990665 31810744 31560790 31270838 31340938 31361045
31541104 32111247 32921274=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)