1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2132

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 10 20:07:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 102007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102006=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-102200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2132
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0306 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of Eastern Wyoming and North-central
    Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102006Z - 102200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal risk for large hail and damaging wind through the afternoon/early evening. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this
    time.

    DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorm development is expected across
    eastern Wyoming southward to the Front Range through the afternoon
    and early evening. A swath of MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg amid deep
    layer shear 40-45 kts will support development across the higher
    terrain of a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging
    winds. A few isolated instances of hail exceeding 1" will be
    possible, given steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear
    profiles with sufficient CAPE. However, overall lack of more robust
    buoyancy should keep the large hail threat isolated, which will
    likely keep the spatial extent of the threat minimal. Storm mode
    will likely remain semi-discrete with small mix-mode clusters, which
    will support a few severe gusts but overall keep this threat fairly
    localized as well. Trends are being monitored but a watch is
    unlikely at this time.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9uL5xg4i8XSrKr-8GlEbNcTkPj3YgFp3zEJ-9a-1yRcjJwsSfaMwxvH1KSWn0iKffLE8vNfiM= I9_ukhoXUJDvupKRUY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 39740597 40410603 41950685 43850698 44040689 44130628
    44010583 43640548 43270525 42790509 41300475 40540461
    39630459 39200472 38980505 38930538 39010560 39140582
    39740597=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)