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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2118

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 9 07:29:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 090729
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090728=20
    TXZ000-090930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2118
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023

    Areas affected...Central/East/Southeast TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090728Z - 090930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible across portions of
    central, southeast, and east Texas for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an intensification of
    the thunderstorms ongoing along a southward-progressing outflow
    boundary moving from central TX into portions of southeast and east
    TX. PSN recently gusted to 44 kt around 0720Z. Latest mesoanalysis
    estimates gradually increasing buoyancy from near these storms into
    southeast TX, and this increased buoyancy is likely partially
    responsible for storm intensification.=20

    Based on forecast soundings, the cloud bases of this cluster are
    likely around 700 mb (10 kft). The downstream airmass is
    characterized by a relatively warm and dry sub-cloud layer,
    suggesting the potential for strong gusts exists as the ongoing
    cluster and associated outflow move through. Given this trend
    towards outflow-dominant structures and continued nocturnal cooling
    (and resultant increase in convective inhibition), the overall
    intensity of the cluster is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves
    southward over the next few hours.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 09/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_kcM5kwVRCRDh4b58BwEJ3hKSTLjNIuf7Ubj02eRNFQGwYf8TH-Ejt8H83w7N5fJGKxTwOvWR= qQXkoIxEtMYVsBq4jQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32229598 32249465 31009407 30279561 31199666 32229598=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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