ACUS11 KWNS 082329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082328=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082328Z - 090100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail are possible with
the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated this
evening and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells have been gradually
maturing across western SD over the past couple of hours as a weak
700 mb impulse crests the synoptic upper ridge along the northern
High Plains. Though the boundary layer is relatively dry, steep
tropospheric lapse rates and elongated hodographs (with slight
low-level curvature per latest RAP forecast soundings) suggests that
some of the stronger storms should remain sustained and continue
exhibiting at least transient supercell structures into the evening.
Given the mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates,
isolated instances of severe wind/hail cannot be ruled out with the
stronger storms. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a
WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8MliNgm88_XKJBbxO0q39qSEScCvI31q_ZlcncqnrDY0-ajqzPOk1O-1Boq-dbp23qJlFMqZu= 8zGvOKMdN_oo2toBBs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44400404 44640309 44290174 43740147 43180180 42810240
42760308 42980362 43450397 44400404=20


=3D =3D =3D
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