ACUS11 KWNS 082121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082120=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-082245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Areas affected...portions of far northern North Carolina into
southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082120Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind or hail remain possible for
the rest of the afternoon. The severe threat should be relatively
isolated and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms are propagating north toward the
NC/VA border, and some of these storms have a history of producing
severe wind and hail (including a measured gust exceeding 65 kts an
hour or so ago). While vertical shear is weak, these storms should
continue developing northward and pulse in intensity amid a heated
boundary layer (90+ F surface temperatures supporting 2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE). Damaging gusts remain the main threat, though an instance
or two of severe hail may still occur with the stronger storm cores
given 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. The severe threat should remain
isolated into the evening hours, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9uPW3OGyEtF4d6gvEbswZtjSmhEQaIcj2Mk6-bv1TzVYe9XVYIPNJY60OstKWul6_cnrll5QB= xwQOCRZT1e-VIF2JCU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36357912 37077859 37427775 37477736 37267686 36907627
36387626 36197642 36147768 36357912=20


=3D =3D =3D
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