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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2103

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 7 23:57:43 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 072357
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072357=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-080200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2103
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0657 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

    Areas affected...north-central NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072357Z - 080200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some severe gusts and a few hail reports are possible this
    evening across parts of north-central Nebraska. A watch is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has been ongoing across southern
    South Dakota, moving into northern Nebraska, and additional storms
    are developing along a warm front across the region near an
    upper-level shortwave trough. South of the boundary, temperatures
    are in the mid-80s to near 90F with dewpoints in the low 50s, and
    per short-term RAP profiles, inverted-V low-level thermodynamic
    profiles are common across central Nebraska. Additionally, mid-level
    flow from the trough is producing effective bulk shear of 40 kts
    with straight hodographs. Given the low-level thermodynamic
    profiles, some severe gusts are possible, and a few hail reports are
    possible with the deep-layer shear. The limiting factor is buoyancy,
    with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and for this reason a watch is not
    anticipated. With support from the upper-level trough, storms are
    expected to sustain past sunset, moving to the east and southeast.

    ..Supinie/Thompson.. 09/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6b-eGIVT4_ZqM0un4DrROZCxkYYifcOmrvj5UAKzIcU352s5u20PC_NI9HJ6EZANKLZE_0ZEW= K1jqIpXW1a3mI9qupQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42980180 43030082 42979959 42829881 42139816 41589808
    41329822 41039847 40879906 41070028 41380106 42160181
    42690213 42980180=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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