ACUS11 KWNS 071737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071736=20
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern NY into VT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071736Z - 072000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for damaging winds and
hail should occur with storms this afternoon. However, the need for
a watch in the short term remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually developing early this afternoon
across parts of northern NY into VT. Modest ascent associated with a
weak mid-level vorticity maximum/perturbation evident in water vapor
satellite imagery over this area may be aiding this activity. A
moist and unstable airmass, with MLCAPE already around 1500-2000
J/kg per latest mesoanalysis estimates, is present. Additional
increases in boundary-layer instability appear probable this
afternoon with continued diurnal heating.

Recent VWPs from KCXX show modest low-level southerly flow gradually
veering and strengthening with height through 0-6 km AGL.
Corresponding deep-layer shear remains relatively weak, generally
20-25 kt. Still, this may be sufficient for some updraft
organization. Given the presence of somewhat steepened mid-level
lapse rates, marginally severe hail may occur with initially more
discrete activity, along with isolated damaging downdraft winds. The
potential for a more organized and consolidated cluster of
thunderstorms posing a greater threat for damaging winds may be
delayed until convection farther south across the Mid-Atlantic
spreads northeastward into NY and New England later this afternoon
and evening. Even so, convective trends will be closely monitored
for signs of increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity, which
may eventually prompt watch issuance.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 09/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PmzNRNl-yalYG004q6N3va2MTrKZ8lzHjHCz2zvW7D7CDNLfxWpgsvXL58-SOcnGj1fJKGwS= xIK2_vyCKPZBBrYxW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 44727456 45017399 45027183 44287191 43577255 43667331
43847330 43897419 44147421 44727456=20


=3D =3D =3D
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