ACUS11 KWNS 071558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071558=20 CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-07183=
0-

Mesoscale Discussion 2093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 071558Z - 071830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail will continue to
increase over the next couple of hours. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has recently strengthened over
the higher terrain of the eastern WV Panhandle. This activity should
continue to pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds in
the short term as it moves northeastward. The 12Z sounding from IAD
shows a very moist profile through low levels, with ample low-level
moisture present. Steepened mid-level lapse rates are also present
over much of the Mid-Atlantic, which is already supporting
1500-2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE along/east of the higher terrain. With
continued daytime heating of this moist airmass, should support a
further increase in boundary-layer instability and steepening of
low-level lapse rates through the afternoon.

Mid-level southwesterly flow remains only modestly enhanced, around
20-30 kt, on the eastern side of an upper trough centered over the
Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys. Even so, similar values of deep-layer
shear should promote some updraft organization. A mix of multicells
and marginal supercell structures will be possible with initial
development over the next few hours along/east of weak surface
troughing. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with
this convection. With time, upscale growth into one or more bowing
clusters will likely occur, with a corresponding increase in the
threat for scattered damaging winds with ample DCAPE present. Given
these expectations, one or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will
likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 09/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!51CSzVTBfGTILf6oCyGSll5alEPWnvbxY4X8blQo4YzZuqztFqrlum0P4182M0t-NbK9FL51W= ETk0UYRgm8jf5PVmW0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39297882 40607850 41887747 43127598 43767513 43767431
43267331 42257327 40247490 39347587 38427704 38257792
38357880 39297882=20


=3D =3D =3D
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