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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2087

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 5 23:09:56 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 052309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052309=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-060045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2087
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0609 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

    Areas affected...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669...

    Valid 052309Z - 060045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms remain possible along an outflow
    boundary in east-central MN and northwest WI as well as within a
    confluence band along the MS River. Large hail (1-1.75 in.) and
    damaging winds (50-60 mph) will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The strongest activity in WW 669 is currently west of
    Duluth. The supercell storm in Aitkin County, MN is just north of an
    outflow boundary. With the stronger forcing from an upstream trough
    in this area, it seems possible that this activity could continue
    even if its inflow is more likely to be convectively processed with
    time.

    Farther south, roughly from the Twin Cities southward to the MN
    border, a pre-frontal confluence band has shows signs of increasing
    cumulus development on visible satellite. Shear is weaker with
    southward extent, though shear vectors are slightly more orthogonal
    to the confluence band and may support marginally more discrete
    storms initially. Convective coverage is more questionable given
    weaker forcing.

    The greatest threat for severe weather will exist with storms that
    can anchor along the outflow boundary along with any discrete storms
    that can develop within the confluence band. Large hail (1-1.75 in.)
    and damaging winds (50-60 mph) will be the primary threats.

    ..Wendt.. 09/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6uxoYjFGmDmQDe_WWq2bubnQHsDr0_GKGfZ6QoekV8aShVzj-gzerTIRwc1HtEgHmdaNhQCb1= HlJArcmbmJSvaHDTCw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 44599176 43879191 43599225 43549289 43679328 43979346
    44589338 45599364 46069444 46269454 46599432 47009314
    47159202 47169155 47139140 46779136 45899145 44599176=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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