ACUS11 KWNS 052104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052104=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Areas affected...Portions of MO...southeast KS...northeast/central
OK...and far northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052104Z - 052330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk should increase during the next few
hours. Severe gusts and isolated hail are both possible. A watch
issuance is possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a northeast/southwest-
oriented cold front extending from northwest MO into parts of
central OK this afternoon -- where shallow boundary-layer cumulus is
beginning to develop. Continued diurnal heating amid rich
boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s surface dewpoints)
along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving front
should support convective initiation in the next few hours. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates and 20-30-kt midlevel west-southwesterly
flow oriented oblique to the surface front (strongest across MO)
will initially support semi-discrete storms capable of marginally
severe hail and locally severe gusts. However, a fairly quick
transition from cells to an organized line of storms is expected as
storms maintain residence time in the frontal circulation amid
increasing outflow generation. This mode transition will favor an
increasing severe-wind threat as the front continues slowly
east-southeastward into the evening hours. Currently, the potential
for an organized QLCS appears greatest over parts of MO -- where
deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be stronger compared to
areas farther southwest. However, 100 deg surface temperatures and
related steep low-level lapse rates will still support
severe-thunderstorm gusts into central OK. A watch issuance is
possible this afternoon for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ltUP-9oXdwPQqtgI89b_USjqLgzwcjtE9g_2CSIvYisV_QVjY_p242n4N0TfJIcsIF5DSUEF= 1eigZ0m3SnkQ-FDFhA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36569631 37239540 38389426 39019377 39809340 40159304
40189255 39939190 39489136 38849125 37679171 36929252
36239377 35159582 35069665 35229703 35569727 35839723
36569631=20


=3D =3D =3D
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