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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2083

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 5 05:36:53 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 050536
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050536=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-050700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2083
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

    Areas affected...northeast ND and northwest MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668...

    Valid 050536Z - 050700Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm gusts of 45-60 mph remain possible the next
    1-2 hours, though a localized more intense gust or two may occur as
    well.

    DISCUSSION...A well developed bow will continue to shift northeast
    from northeast ND into northwest MN before crossing the
    international border in the next couple of hours. Surface
    observations suggest much of this activity is to the cool side of a
    warm front draped across northwest MN. Nevertheless, convection will
    move through a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, 40+ kt effective
    shear magnitudes, and midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
    should continue to support organized convection. In addition to
    convection being on the cool side of the surface boundary,
    boundary-layer cooling leading to strong low-level CINH has likely
    rendered storms to be elevated. Recent measured surface observations
    of 47 kt at KDVL and 47 kt at KRDR highlight the transition toward
    more elevated convection struggling to overcome strong
    boundary-layer inhibition compared to earlier, more intense gusts.
    However, a gust to 67 kt at KGFK suggests localized intense gusts
    may continue in the short term. Overall, expect more broad area of
    thunderstorm gusts to around 45-60 mph to continue for another 1-2
    hours as the line of storm approaches the international border.
    Gusty winds may continue behind the line of convection in the
    wake-low region.

    ..Leitman.. 09/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9gCohISkf6hwyOlw6Ap7J2RPkKZrWXRv3RDtto4yHBcXtlS0Is2q0kVl6G_ctp-l8c5bo6aVn= SaebLpN9n-ozWXCVbI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...

    LAT...LON 48639823 49069656 48899560 48379538 47889612 47339745
    47249797 47729840 48329867 48639823=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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